Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 14.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Latavius Murray has been a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this year (53.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (33.5%).
Latavius Murray has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Latavius Murray's rushing effectiveness (3.72 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (15th percentile among RBs).
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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