Latavius Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -322 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be much more involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (66.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
Latavius Murray has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among running backs (87th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in football (0.58 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.