Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Latavius Murray's receiving performance has been refined this season, averaging 1.2 adjusted receptions vs just 0.1 last season.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (94.7%) to running backs this year (94.7%).
The New England defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to pass rush.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Latavius Murray has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (27.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (38.3%).

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