Latavius Murray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in football (86.5%) vs. running backs this year (86.5%).
The Denver Broncos O-line has given their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Latavius Murray has notched a measly -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among running backs.
Latavius Murray has been among the worst pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a mere 4.0 yards per game while ranking in the 14th percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging a measly 2.69 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 11th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. RBs this year, allowing 5.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.