Latavius Murray Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 14.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Latavius Murray has been a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this year (53.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (33.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.