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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-360).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +350 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +310.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
  • Lamar Jackson grades out as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an impressive 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 82nd percentile.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 2.14 per game (97th percentile), Lamar Jackson rates among the best TD throwers in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.33 per game) against the Browns defense this year.
  • The Browns defensive ends grade out as the best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in football in the red zone (48.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
  • The weather report calls for 24-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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