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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -188 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.6% to 70.7%.
  • With an outstanding ratio of 2.00 per game (97th percentile), Lamar Jackson rates among the best TD throwers in football this year.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Miami cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-worst CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (51.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Ravens.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).

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