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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-144/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Ravens to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Lamar Jackson's 70.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a substantial improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 67.6% mark.
  • Lamar Jackson has been among the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an exceptional 2.00 per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league against the Bears defense this year (76.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the most TDs through the air in football: 2.50 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (52.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Baltimore Ravens.
  • The fewest plays in the league have been run by the Ravens this year (just 49.2 per game on average).
  • Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 32.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.

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