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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • This year, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed a monstrous 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in football.
  • This year, the shaky Steelers defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.69 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 10th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Right now, the 6th-least pass-focused team in football near the end zone (50.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Ravens.
  • The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.
  • In this game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the predictive model to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 30.1.

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