Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 1:22 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/+107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Lamar Jackson has been one of the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 1.50 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst rate in football.
The Patriots defense has been torched for the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.71 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (52.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Baltimore Ravens.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

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