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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/+107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Lamar Jackson has been one of the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 1.50 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
  • This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst rate in football.
  • The Patriots defense has been torched for the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.71 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (52.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Baltimore Ravens.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

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