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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+103/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +101 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • Lamar Jackson has been one of the top TD throwers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 1.50 per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
  • This year, the poor Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed a monstrous 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.
  • The Steelers defense has been torched for the 9th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.67 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
  • The model projects the Ravens as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 5th-least pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (51.6% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Ravens.
  • At a massive 30.21 seconds per snap, the Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-slowest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
  • In this contest, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.1.

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