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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) last year.

With an impressive rate of 2.41 per game (98th percentile), Lamar Jackson rates as one of the top TD passers in football last year.

Last year, the feeble Bills defense has given up a massive 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Last year, the anemic Bills defense has allowed a massive 1.82 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 4th-highest rate in football.

The Bills safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in football last year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.6% red zone pass rate.

The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.49 seconds per play.

The predictive model expects Lamar Jackson to throw 31.4 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.

More Lamar Jackson Player Props

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