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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-128/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.6 per game) this year.

Lamar Jackson grades out as one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an outstanding 69.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 78th percentile.

Lamar Jackson has been one of the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a fantastic 2.22 per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.

The leading projections forecast the Ravens as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (51.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Baltimore Ravens.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 125.9 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.

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