Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.
Lamar Jackson's 72.4% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 62.9% figure.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in football vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 51.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.13 seconds per snap.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is projected by the projection model to have the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.0.

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