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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is expected by the model to earn the 3rd-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.1.
  • Making up 25.6% of his team's rush attempts this year (97th percentile among QBs), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a serious threat as a ball-carrier.
  • Lamar Jackson's ground efficiency (7.49 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among QBs).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • Lamar Jackson has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (53.0).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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