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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-132/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to run on 39.7% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to accrue the 4th-most carries out of all QBs with 5.6.
  • With an exceptional total of 2.22 yards-after-contact (82nd percentile), Lamar Jackson stands as one of the leading rushing QBs in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.
  • The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • After taking on 26.1% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Lamar Jackson has been called on less the running game this season, now comprising just 18.0%.
  • Lamar Jackson's 26.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a significant regression in his rushing skills over last year's 53.0 figure.
  • Lamar Jackson's running effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 6.12 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.09 mark last year.

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