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Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.6% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week.

In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the predictive model to total the 4th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 6.5.

Lamar Jackson rates as one of the top QBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 2.20 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.

The New England Patriots defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

Lamar Jackson has been a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack this season (19.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (26.1%).

Lamar Jackson has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (53.0).

Lamar Jackson's rushing effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a measly 6.25 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.09 rate last year.

More Lamar Jackson Player Props

Lamar Jackson Rushing YardsPlayer Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16