Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 49.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to total 9.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.
Accounting for 29.8% of his offense's carries this year (100th percentile when it comes to QBs), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a significant threat as a ball-carrier.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Lamar Jackson's 53.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a material reduction in his running prowess over last season's 66.0 figure.
Lamar Jackson's ground efficiency has diminished this year, averaging a measly 5.95 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.94 figure last year.
This year, the porous Browns run defense has been gouged for a whopping 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 29th-largest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's group of DTs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.