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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-104/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 238.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 230.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.6% to 70.7%.
  • Lamar Jackson rates as one of the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 8.91 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Miami cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-worst CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is expected by the projection model to average the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 26.3.

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