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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-114/+113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 209.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 211.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a terrific 7.99 adjusted yards-per-target (83rd percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson ranks among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.
  • This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.
  • The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.5 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.

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