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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 220.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 226.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 220.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

Lamar Jackson comes in as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 8.01 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 88th percentile.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Washington's CB corps has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a massive 8-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is expected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 28.2.

The Commanders defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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