Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 222.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 223.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 222.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (42.0 per game) this year.
Lamar Jackson's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 71.1%.
Lamar Jackson has been one of the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 7.44 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 29.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.

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