Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 202.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Lamar Jackson's 74.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a a noteworthy boost in his passing accuracy over last season's 62.9% figure.
Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 7.60 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
The Steelers defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.7.
This year, the tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered a feeble 63.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-best rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Pittsburgh's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.