Lamar Jackson Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Pass Attempts

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.7.

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