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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Completions
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.
  • The projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.5 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.

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