Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 5, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Lamar Jackson grades out as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL last year with an impressive 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the league versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (68.5% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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