Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 26, 2024 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to run on 48.6% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Lamar Jackson to accrue 8.9 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, making up 28.3% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may go down.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Los Angeles's safety corps has been great this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

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