Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-160/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (35.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles project as the 5th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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