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Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-113/+109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Kyren Williams has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 9.3% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • When it comes to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a staggering 7.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Kyren Williams has received 61.3% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • Kyren Williams's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 90.0% to 84.2%.

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