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Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-121/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 10.5% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among running backs.
  • When talking about air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
  • The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Rams this year (a lowly 54.7 per game on average).
  • Among all running backs, Kyren Williams ranks in the 93rd percentile for red zone carries this year, taking on 61.7% of the workload in his team's ground game near the goal line.
  • Kyren Williams's 81.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a material drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 89.8% mark.
  • With a stellar ratio of 0.57 TDs on the ground per game (93rd percentile), Kyren Williams has been as one of the top rushing TD-scorers in the league this year.

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