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Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Kyren Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-183/+143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -159 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -183.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Rams as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the projections to call 66.9 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Kyren Williams has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 73.7% of snaps vs 86.6% last season.

Since the start of last season, the deficient San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been torched for a whopping 90.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the San Francisco 49ers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.0 per game) this year.

The Los Angeles offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Kyren Williams's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 89.9% to 78.6%.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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