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Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Kyren Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Kyren Williams has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this year, playing on just 69.4% of snaps compared to 86.6% last year.
  • In this contest, Kyren Williams is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.8 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Kyren Williams's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 90.0% to 84.2%.
  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.8%) to RBs this year (77.8%).

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