Kyren Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Kyren Williams has run more routes this year (73.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (29.0%).
In this week's game, Kyren Williams is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 77th percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets.
When it comes to air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a striking 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
Kyren Williams has posted significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (10.0).

Favors Under

The model projects the Rams to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.3 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Rams profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Kyren Williams's 57.3% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 79.9% rate.
This year, the fierce Cardinals defense has given up the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a meager 5.3 yards.