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Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Kyler Murray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • With a lousy rate of only 0.00 rushing touchdowns per game (2nd percentile), Kyler Murray ranks as one of the weakest running QBs in the league this year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season (73.5% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Cardinals, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cardinals as the 9th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The model projects Kyler Murray to be a more important option in his team's run game near the goal line in this week's game (23.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
  • This year, the feeble Titans run defense has given up a whopping 1.75 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the highest rate in football.

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