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Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

Kyler Murray is positioned as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 70.4% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The Cardinals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats too low) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in the NFL against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (69.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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