Kyler Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-112/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats too low) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
The projections expect Kyler Murray to total 5.7 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 8th-most out of all QBs.
After comprising 17.0% of his team's rush attempts last season, Kyler Murray has had a larger role in the run game this season, now making up 27.1%.
Kyler Murray has generated 33.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to QBs (86th percentile).

Favors Under

The Cardinals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
Kyler Murray's 5.64 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year conveys a noteworthy diminishment in his running ability over last year's 7.68 mark.

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