Kyler Murray Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Pass Attempts

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
In logging a staggering 36.5 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Kyler Murray rates among the top quarterbacks in the league (78th percentile) in this regard.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.

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