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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-355).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +320 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +320.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.
  • The projections expect Kyle Pitts to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the goal line in this week's game (21.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).
  • Kyle Pitts has notched a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Kyle Pitts's 42.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

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