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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+158/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +158.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.2 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • While Kyle Pitts has garnered 15.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Atlanta's pass game near the goal line this week at 25.7%.
  • When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 89th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a superb 36.0 per game.
  • Kyle Pitts's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 30.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 56.0% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

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