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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-290/-330).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +330 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -290.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.8 plays per game.
  • Kyle Pitts has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Kyle Pitts slots into the 85th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a superb 34.7 figure this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
  • After accumulating 36.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has gotten worse this season, currently sitting at 27.0 per game.
  • This year, the daunting 49ers defense has allowed a meager 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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