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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-285).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -305 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -285.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

The Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

While Kyle Pitts has been responsible for 7.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 21.4%.

Kyle Pitts has put up a monstrous 32.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.9% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are projected by the projection model to call only 61.9 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

The Bills defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to TEs: 0.20 per game this year.

Opposing offenses have run for the most touchdowns in football (1.40 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

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