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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-495).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -490 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -495.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the end zone in this week's game (19.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 35.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 30.4.

Kyle Pitts's 80.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive boost in his receiving ability over last season's 65.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.0% red zone run rate.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Kyle Pitts ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

More Kyle Pitts Player Props

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