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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +270 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +280.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

With a high 18.1% Red Zone Target Share (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the end zone in football.

When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 36.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 82nd percentile for TEs.

Kyle Pitts's 82.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 65.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

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