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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -225.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • With a top-tier 16.3% Red Zone Target% (81st percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts has been among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.
  • After averaging 36.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has made big progress this season, currently sitting at 52.0 per game.
  • Kyle Pitts's 48.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 30.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals run defense has given up a colossal 1.07 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 10th-worst rate in football.
  • The Arizona defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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