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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -325.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • While Kyle Pitts has accounted for 15.6% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Atlanta's offense near the goal line this week at 24.4%.
  • After totaling 36.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has seen a big uptick this year, currently sitting at 45.0 per game.
  • Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 30.4.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.9% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.09 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.

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