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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -325 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -325.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • While Kyle Pitts has accounted for 16.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest at 25.0%.
  • Kyle Pitts has compiled significantly more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (36.0 per game).
  • Kyle Pitts's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 30.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • The Saints defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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