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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-320).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -320.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
  • Kyle Pitts has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
  • Kyle Pitts has notched quite a few more air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).
  • Kyle Pitts's 45.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 30.4.
  • The Falcons O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 6th-most run-focused team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • The projections expect the Falcons to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most TDs in football (1.00 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

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