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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+113/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.
  • Kyle Pitts has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (75.7%).
  • In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.8 targets.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 9th-best in football.

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