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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.2 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Kyle Pitts has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (90.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (75.7%).
  • In this game, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 97th percentile among TEs with 7.6 targets.
  • The Falcons O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 56.0% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • When it comes to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Miami's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the best in football.

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