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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+140/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

The Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Kyle Pitts has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (75.7%).

This week, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the projections to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.8 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.9% pass rate.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are projected by the projection model to call only 61.9 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

The Bills pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73.7%) versus TEs since the start of last season (73.7%).

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